I am sitting in the gallery of the House of Representatives listening to the debate on the third reading of the budget. The budget passed on the second reading yesterday with five Democrats joining the Republican majority to vote for the budget. So despite the ongoing debate today, the outcome is clear. Tomorrow the budget will go to the Senate where very little change is expected. Once the General Assembly sends their budget to the Governor she will surely veto it and that is when the fun begins. The Senate has enough votes to easily overturn a veto but the House needs at least four Democrats to join the Republican majority in order to overturn. The big question is whether those Dems who voted for the House budget yesterday will stick with the Republicans when it comes to the veto. Governor Perdue sounds confident that her veto will not be overturned. Does she have commitments from those five who voted for the budget to change their votes in case of a veto? What do the Republicans have to encourage those Dems to stay with them? The answer is obvious – redistricting. Once the budget is completed the General Assembly will turn its focus to re-drawing all NC legislative districts and Congressional districts. The Democrats who voted for the budget could easily have their districts drawn in such a way as to make it harder or impossible for them to be re-elected. But voting with the Republicans on the budget and sticking with them in case of a veto could significantly improve their chances of getting a “safe” district.
The new leadership promised to pass a budget quickly and get out of town. I’m sure they were sincere but with a veto and all that could follow I don’t see the session ending anytime soon. It is easy to imagine a scenario that could keep us here into August.
Keep in mind that the longer the General Assembly stays in session the more opportunity they have to cause problems. In particular, as gas prices rise this summer there will be more and more pressure on the Legislature to “do something”. We know that there is nothing they can do that will lower or limit gas prices at the pump – but that reality will have little or no impact on decisions in this building.
I believe that our jobs message has made an impact on some legislators and we will make sure the leadership continues to hear how devastating a gas tax cap would be for our industry and employees.
As always, call me with any questions or comments.